No plan – business as usual for at least the next two years? Bob Earll
Whilst the Government is putting a brave face on it and moving on there seems to have been little contingency planning outside the Treasury and Bank of England. The Leave campaign had no plan. So the plan for Brexit remains to be set out and answers to a range of practical questions covering many sectors with direct interest in Water remain to be answered. There are clearly many implications for current work, investment and decisions. We will try to cover this as they unfold.
Decisions on hold
During the Brexit debate, and purdah, Government put many things on hold. Given the outcome and the political and economic situation for the next six months or more it seems that many big decisions will be further delayed, if they take place at all; these include:
- Hinkley Point nuclear build – The French might be having second thoughts on this investment given the outcome of the vote.
- Swansea Tidal Lagoon – Value for money review Even if the review reports quickly it seems likely that any decision by Government will be delayed.
- The London Runway This has been put off for the new administration.
- Twenty five year environment plan This most unlikely project was a rather strange proposition before the vote. Whether it comes forward in this time of uncertainty seems debatable. George Eustace might fancy rewriting the bits protecting wildlife!
- The government’s announcement on 5th carbon budget, covering the period 2028-32. The independent Committee on Climate Change had recommended a target that would see an overall 57% emissions reduction from 1990 levels. Government has accepted this today Thursday 30th June but lacks the policies that will deliver this.
Planning for uncertainty – Bruce Horton
The consequences of Brexit for the water sector and the environment are as uncertain as they are in other areas. However, particular areas of potential concern are likely to include:
- Climate policy (the European carbon price has plunged over the last few days)
- Compliance with EU regulations and directives
- Continued funding from the European Investment Bank, currently the biggest lender to the UK water industry
- Higher energy bills
- Skills and labour
- Research funding and collaborative working opportunities – what happens to the UK collaborators in current projects? (see below)
The European Commission has selected 28 proposals for funding under Horizon 2020’s Societal Challenge “Climate action, environment, resource efficiency and raw materials”. They include a number of water-related projects, some in the UK.
Political Uncertainty
For our system of Government to work there needs to be a degree of political stability. With the current consequences of the vote playing out over the next six months it will be difficult for Parliament to function. Once some degree of stability does return there will only one issue on the agenda. The outcome of the vote has had the following political consequences:
- Election of the new Conservative leader and a new cabinet
- Election of a new Labour leader
- Constitutional change re-opened in Scotland
- Questions on the status of Northern Ireland
- A quick election – before the 2020 timetable?
- There is also the issue of the vast majority of MPs being Pro-Europe in
- The difficulty of Ministers in Defra & DECC being in Remain and Leave camps
- A difficulty with tensions within the Conservative MPs with a majority of 12 making legislative action difficult