Brexit Overview – 4^th August

Bob Earll   Everything underlined is a web link. Thanks to Louise Earll, Martin Brocklehurst, Bruce Horton  

Introduction   Trying to make sense of the Brexit decision has been a major task. This blog covers the big picture because it is from this that other major decisions will flow. Whether these are planned or unintended (i.e. a reshuffle scrapping DECC) they will have profound effects on the water and marine sectors interests in sustainability and the environment. Another blog called Brexit Themes will be prepared that collates important areas of direct interest to our sector. Theme inputs will be developed in a cumulative fashion, for example there are now seven links in the Brexit & Fisheries theme. 

Taking stock as Parliament goes in to recess until September it seems likely that there will be a period of relative calm as civil servants and departments try and make sense of what has happened.

The rapid election of Theresa May and the major reshuffle of government is probably the most profound impact of Brexit so far with new priorities and ministers at Defra and with the scrapping of DECC.

The deal     Shortly after the vote Ian Hislop from Private Eye summed it up perfectly The options on leaving involve:

• What trading status we want with Europe – inside or outside the European Economic Area or some lesser arrangement
• Whether we accept free movement
• How much we will have to pay to be part of the trading arrangements
• Accepting that we have no part in making the EU rules

There are various options discussed including Norwegian, Swiss or Turkish models offer. There will no doubt there will be a British variant of the model but the trade-offs will be important. Business and trade are at the heart of this but many of the other aspects of direct interest to water and marine sectors are closely linked to this, in particular the regulatory frameworks that apply. Norway, for example accepts, pretty much all the EU Directives. Some interesting points have emerged:

• Clearly in Johnson, Fox and Davis – all prominent Brexitiers – are now in position to help frame the deal. Theresa May has a shield against those who accuse her of not being committed but it seems highly likely that she will be doing the main negotiating.
• Europe might blink over free movement re UK – the so-called ‘emergency brake’ – with one eye on minimising the shock to both EU and UK economies of Brexit.
• It seems that Theresa May is in no rush to trigger the Article 50 process and in this she has the support of Angela Merkel.

BUT there is a big BUT. Once ‘a deal’ is clear, then this will be a very big deal indeed, because the Government will need to decide what they do. Parliament will have to be involved very much more fully and it is likely this would require an Act of Parliament. This might be the point at which Theresa May goes to the country for a mandate to deliver the deal (she currently only has a working majority of 17). Another referendum seems unlikely. In any event the constitutional position of Parliament – see below – will become rather important.

The Constitutional Position – The strange status of Parliament   ‘A referendum trumps Parliament’ and yet many people are asking what the role Parliament will have in the ongoing process. Some of those questions are being posed by interest groups outside Parliament. 

Over 1000 barristers from England and the devolved countries have written to the PM highlighting the need for a royal Commission to outline the options and the need for a vote in Parliament before Article 50 is triggered. Their points highlight the inadequacy of the options put before the electorate. Bearing in mind Chilcot’s deliberations on PM’s overextending their remit any incoming PM would do well to ponder this. The High Court have given them leave to take this forward in October.

The various post Brexit Petitions will prompt some debates. The Government have now produced a response to the petition and there will be a debate. You can view the current petitions and there are a number that involve Brexit.

Theresa May was quick to visit Nicola Sturgeon in Edinburgh but it is not clear how the Scottish National Parties pro-Europe position will be resolved in the long term. This will be another Parliamentary thorn in the Government’s side.

Dark Humour in Dark times 

It all makes work for the working man to do   … I don’t think I’m alone in thinking that the work involved in all of this, not least defending hard won progress, will be enormous. Dark humour in dark times – remember Flanders and Swan – the gasman cometh 

Do not watch this one if you don’t like swearing – The reaction in Boris’s bunker (clue’s in the name) on the finding out the result – the latest in a long line of these – if you’re into rugby, watch the O’Driscoll dropped on Lions tour video.