The UK transport sector is facing growing hazards, including flooding and landslides, as a result of climate change making British winters warmer and wetter, according to new guidance released by the Met Office and the Department for Transport (DfT). The two bodies have collaborated on a report outlining the increasing pressures on infrastructure across road, rail, maritime, and aviation networks.

Climate change projections and impacts

The guidance highlights that while the UK continues to experience winter hazards like snow and ice, the overall trend is toward increased heavy rainfall and water-related disruption. The Met Office’s climate projections show a distinct rise in the frequency of intense rainfall events:

• Current Rainfall: Based on observations between 2000 and 2017, the UK currently averages seven days per year where rainfall exceeds 80mm in a single 24-hour period.
• Future Scenarios: Should global average temperatures rise to 3°C above pre-industrial levels—a plausible scenario for the second half of the century—the UK is projected to see an average of ten days per year of heavy rainfall. This represents a 43% increase compared with current levels.

Mark Harrison, Strategic Head of UK Applied Science at the Met Office, stated that “Climate projections indicate we can expect more frequent intense rainfall events, which can overwhelm drainage systems, disrupt road and rail services, and damage critical infrastructure.” The impact of these events is significant; flooding incidents such as those in 2007 and 2015/16 reportedly cost the UK transport sector hundreds of millions of pounds in repairs and delays.

Sector response and adaptation

The new guidance, developed in collaboration with transport and government organisations, provides accessible information on hazards such as coastal erosion, drought, and heavy rain, along with practical advice for managing the risks. The objective is to promote a comprehensive ‘resilience cycle’ approach that helps operators assess risks and build long-term adaptation strategies.

Andy Gregory, Director for Resilience at the Department for Transport, said that “Safe and reliable transport is a cornerstone of our daily lives and economy in the UK, yet it faces growing risks from natural and weather-related hazards.” He stressed that the climate is changing and the UK has witnessed the impacts on the transport system of increasingly extreme hazardous weather events.

Independent bodies have reinforced the need for urgent action. The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) warned earlier in the year that the UK’s preparations for climate change are inadequate. The CCC noted that over a third of railway and road kilometres in the UK are currently at flood risk, with projections suggesting this could rise to around half by 2050, according to their 2025 report to Parliament on progress in adapting to climate change.