Photo by Angel Silva

Scientists have reported the first recorded collapse of Panama’s seasonal ocean upwelling, a natural process that has sustained marine life and coastal communities in the tropical Pacific for decades.

Upwelling events occur when winds drive surface waters away from the coast, allowing cooler, nutrient-rich waters to rise and fertilise the upper ocean. This cycle supports plankton blooms that underpin fisheries and marine food webs. But this year, researchers observed that the phenomenon simply did not occur.

A study led by the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute confirmed that sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Panama remained abnormally high, with no sign of the cooling that typically accompanies the seasonal upwelling. The absence of nutrients has already led to declines in plankton productivity, threatening fish stocks and seabird populations.

“This is a system that has been predictable and reliable for at least four decades,” the authors noted, warning that its disappearance “could have profound consequences for biodiversity, food security, and regional economies.”

Scientists believe a combination of climate change and the recent strong El Niño event may have disrupted atmospheric and oceanic conditions, preventing the normal wind-driven mixing. If such collapses become more frequent, experts caution that Panama’s fisheries and dependent coastal communities could face long-term instability.

The findings add to growing evidence that climate change is reshaping fundamental ocean processes. Upwellings are critical not only in the tropics but in many of the world’s most productive marine regions. Their disruption could reverberate through global seafood supplies and marine ecosystems alike.