Image description: A blue sea star (Linckia laevigata) photographed on a largely dead reef on the Coral Coast on Fiji’s largest island, Viti Levu. The damage to the reef is likely caused by a number of stressors, including prolonged water temperatures, storm surges and fertiliser input from agriculture on land, as well as overfishing of certain key species needed to maintain the balance of coral reef ecosystems. Image by Tom Vierus / Climate Visuals
A new international research study has forecast the impacts of climate change on the world’s coastal oceans to the end of the century.
The landmark study, “Future climate Projections in the Global Coastal Ocean”, assesses how climate change will alter ocean temperature, salinity, sea level and currents across the global coastal ocean – regions which host diverse ecosystems and are home to more than a third of the world’s population.
Significant warming and Coastal Change
Using advanced climate models and high-resolution data, the study projects significant warming in coastal ocean regions by 2100 under high-emission scenarios, with associated changes in salinity and ocean dynamics. These transformations are expected to have profound consequences for biodiversity, fisheries, coastal communities and the wider climate system.
The study also highlights how coastal areas are particularly vulnerable due to their shallow waters and proximity to land-based impacts, such as freshwater discharge and pollution. Changes in coastal ocean conditions could affect key industries such as fisheries and offshore energy, while also exacerbating risks such as sea-level rise and coastal erosion.
How this work advances the UN Ocean Decade
The work is part of the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development project Future Coastal Ocean Climates (FLAME), part of the CoastPredict program. It draws on expertise from more than 40 leading institutions across four continents.
Dr. Bahareh Kamranzad, Lecturer in Civil and Environmental Engineering at Strathclyde and a contributing author to the study said: “Coastal regions are not only highly dynamic and diverse, but they also face increasing pressures from climate change, development and environmental degradation. This research offers vital insights into how coastal ocean conditions may evolve and what this means for ecosystems, coastal infrastructure and energy planning… By understanding these projected changes, we can better inform adaptation strategies, sustainable development, and the design of resilient coastal systems globally.”