Results published in the journal Nature Ecology and Evolution, have found that floating cities, wildfires, overfishing and lithium extraction for electric cars are some of the issues that have made a shortlist of concerns from leading marine experts on impacts facing the global ocean in the next ten years.

The “horizon scanning”, conducted by an international team of scientists and policymakers, has culminated in 15 issues facing the deep sea, and coastlines. A team of international experts, including researchers at the University of York and the University of Cambridge, worked together to produce a list of 15 issues they believe are likely to have a significant impact on marine and coastal biodiversity over the next five to ten years.

They focused on identifying issues that are not currently receiving widespread attention, but are likely to become important over the next decade. The aim of the work is to raise awareness and encourage investment into full assessment of these issues, and potentially drive policy change, before the issues have a major impact on biodiversity.

“Marine and coastal ecosystems face a wide range of emerging issues that are poorly recognised or understood, each having the potential to impact biodiversity,” wrote Dr James Herbert-Read from University of Cambridge’s Department of Zoology, joint first author of the paper.

Based on a modified Delphi voting process, the final 15 issues presented were distilled from a list of 75 submitted by participants at the start of the process. These issues are grouped into three categories: ecosystem impacts, for example the impact of wildfires and the effect of poleward migration on equatorial biodiversity; resource exploitation, including an increase in the trade of fish swim bladders and increased exploitation of marine collagens; and new technologies, such as soft robotics and new biodegradable products.

Some of the issues related to exploitation of the ocean’s natural resources, including for green tech like electric vehicles (EVs). The team predicted increased extraction from deep sea “brine pools” — unique, diverse marine environments – which also have high concentrations of salts containing lithium, the key component of EV batteries.

While overfishing is an ongoing problem, the horizon scan looked to what might happen next. The authors predicted that there may soon be a shift to fishing in the ocean’s mesopelagic zone (a depth of 200-1000 metres). In these deeper waters, fish are not fit to be eaten by people but can be sold as food to fish farms.

For further information read the reports in the Independent and from York University.

The journal paper can be read here.