The pink sea fan (Eunicella verrucosa) fan lives in shallow waters from the western Mediterranean to north-west Ireland and the south-west of England and Wales.

A study by researchers from Exeter University found that the species is likely to spread northwards – including further around the British coast as far as Scotland – by 2100 as global temperatures rise.

Dr Tom Jenkins, from Exeter University, said: “We built models to predict the current and future habitat of pink sea fans across an area covering the Bay of Biscay, the British Isles and southern Norway.”

Using a global heating model called RCP 8.5, the researchers predicted that by 2100 there would be suitable habitats for pink sea fans north of the current range. Successful colonisation, the study found, would depend on several factors, including dispersal and competition.

Jenkins said: “The model predictions revealed current areas of suitable habitat beyond the current northern range limits of the pink sea fan, in areas where colonies have not yet been observed. It’s not clear why pink sea fans have not yet colonised these areas,” he added. Possible barriers include competition for space and resources, and insufficient dispersal of coral larvae.

Existing habitats, across south-west Britain, the Channel Islands and north-west France, were also predicted to remain suitable for sea fans over the next 60 to 80 years.

Dr Jamie Stevens, also from Exeter University, said: “This research highlights the complex effects of climate change on marine ecosystems, in which the ranges of some species respond to warming by shifting pole-wards. In a rapidly changing mosaic of habitats, some species – typically those favouring warmer conditions – may come out as short-term ‘winners’. How long these species can continue to expand and benefit in the face of accelerated warming remains to be seen.”

The Guardian report on this story can be read here