Photo by Vivek Doshi
Forecasters are sounding the alarm over the possible development of one of the strongest El Niño events in recorded history, with ocean temperatures already at near-record levels and rapidly evolving Pacific conditions pointing toward a potentially catastrophic event by late 2026.
The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service has recorded extrapolar global sea surface temperatures for April 2026 at 21°C – the second highest for any April on record, trailing only April 2024. Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at Copernicus, said: “April 2026 adds to the clear signal of sustained global warmth. Sea surface temperatures were near record levels with widespread marine heatwaves, Arctic sea ice remained well below average, and Europe saw sharp contrasts in temperature and rainfall; all hallmarks of a climate increasingly shaped by extremes.”
An unusually rapid transition
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center now puts the probability of El Niño emerging between May and July at 61%, with a one-in-four chance of a very strong event – defined as temperatures exceeding 2°C above the historical average – developing by winter. Nathaniel Johnson, a research meteorologist at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, told Live Science that the transition from La Niña conditions to potentially very strong El Niño could be “one of the most rapid transitions that I’ve seen in the record – maybe the most rapid.”
New research published in the journal Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research points to an unusual driver. Scientists identified a rare “annular warming” pattern, simultaneous warming in three separate regions of the tropical Pacific, that has not been seen at this intensity in at least four decades. Lead author Tao Lian, a professor at the Second Institute of Oceanography, told Earth.com that “the current heat content is sufficient to generate a moderate El Niño event toward the end of 2026, and the annular warming we are currently observing in the Pacific could elevate this El Niño to the super category.” Co-author Dake Chen noted that a strong westerly wind burst observed in late March was a further warning sign: “the probability of a super El Niño is increasing.”
Potential consequences for oceans and coasts
The marine consequences of a very strong El Niño are well established. Warmer surface waters suppress upwelling of the cold, nutrient-rich water that underpins productive fisheries, particularly around South America. Coral reefs face acute bleaching risk: the 2015–16 El Niño caused unparalleled coral heat stress globally, contributing to mass die-offs. Johnson highlighted that El Niño conditions “modify crop yields, disease spread, coral bleaching, fisheries and many other parts of the earth system that affect our daily lives.”
Research published in Nature Communications in December 2025 found that super El Niño events can trigger “climate regime shifts”, abrupt, lasting changes in heat, rainfall and drought patterns that persist for years or decades. All three super El Niños on record (1982–83, 1997–98, 2015–16) contributed to such shifts, including regional ocean temperature changes that led to mass die-offs among marine organisms from starfish to seabirds and marine mammals.
The humanitarian dimension is also significant. Professor Liz Stephens of the University of Reading told BBC Weather that “we’re probably looking at record global temperatures next year, especially if this is a very strong El Niño event.” She warned of “potentially quite huge humanitarian impacts” given the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption to fertiliser distribution and existing food insecurity: “If you get a reduction in crop yields because of drought or flooding then that drives prices even higher.”
A “significant event” — but uncertainty remains
The UK Met Office has stopped short of using the term “super El Niño” but acknowledged the scale of what may be coming. Grahame Madge, a senior climate communicator at the Met Office, said: “This is likely to be a significant event. Scientists are telling us that this could be the strongest El Niño event this so far century, comparable to the notable El Niño event in 1998.”
Some forecast models suggest peak temperatures in the monitoring region could exceed 3°C above the historical average, which would surpass the current known peak of 2.7°C recorded in 1877, an event that triggered catastrophic famine across Asia, Brazil and Africa. Forecasters caution, however, that spring predictions carry inherent uncertainty and that “El Niño never ceases to surprise us,” as Lian put it.
Carbon Brief has predicted 2026 is likely to be the second-warmest year on record, with a strong El Niño increasing the probability that 2027 will surpass it.