New report warns of need for to assess growing risks to UK coastal communities

 A new report from the Government Office for Science is warning that the information needed to develop effective policies to ensure the future prosperity, sustainability and health of coastal communities is either inadequate or not available.

According to the report Future of the Sea: Health and Wellbeing of Coastal Communities, policy development depends on having accurate information upon which to make judgements about the extent to which particular risks should be addressed. Although the report states that the views expressed do not “represent policy of any government or organisation”, the review was commissioned as part of the UK government’s Foresight Future of the Sea project.

The report says that communities along the coast are on the front line in facing climate change and marine pollution impacts. Sea-level rise and extreme weather events, driven by climate change and ecosystem damage, are exposing coastal communities to the growing risk of flooding events now and in the future.

More than 11 million Britons live in coastal areas – approximately 17 per cent of the UK population.

Determining how each coastal community can become resilient in the face of socio-demographic change and the increasing number of extreme events and environmental threats is now a key challenge, the report says.

By 2080 climate change is predicted to have ‘severe’ damaging impacts, to the degree that it will pose a significant threat to the health and wellbeing of UK and global coastal communities due to:

• Sea-level rise of one metre (and potentially up to two metres)
• Increased frequency of winter storms
• Increased coastal flooding
• Increased temperatures
• Higher levels of winter precipitation, particularly along the northern and western coastlines
• Increased rates of coastal erosion and sediment reworking (resulting in reconfiguration, relocation and decline of coastal sedimentary processes).

The most vulnerable coastal communities in the UK are likely to be in south Wales, north-west Scotland, Yorkshire, Lincolnshire, East Anglia and the Thames Estuary, the report says. This is due both to the physical threats, but also through damage to local economies, industry and infrastructure, and the limited capacity of the communities most at risk to respond.

As well as posing a direct threat to health (e.g. though extreme acute events), the rise in sea levels and flooding and storm surges associated with climate change are threatening built infrastructure, including ports, roads and rail lines.

The report has flagged up the 2017 Committee on Climate Change risk assessment which identifies flooding and coastal change as one of the six immediate priority areas for climate change action.

“The Committee noted that there are likely to be considerable long-term health and wellbeing impacts of climate change-related flood events, but that these are currently little understood and research is needed to assess and mitigate risks.” the report says.

Environmental state of UK coastal habitats has declined, degrading ecosystem service provision

The review also draws attention to the loss of ‘natural’ sea defences along the UK coastline – overall, the environmental state of coastal habitats has declined since 1945, degrading ecosystem service provision.   “The loss of intertidal habitats and coastal features (natural coastal or marine ecosystems, and ‘green/blue infrastructure’), due to climate change, development and erosion, removes the natural ‘buffering’ of wave energy, thereby threatening the UK’s coastal defences.” the report warns.

“Use of marine planning and ‘natural capital’ methodologies could provide a basis for action

Commenting on the policy implications presented by growing risks, the report says that the health and wellbeing of the UK’s highly diverse coastal communities face serious threats now and in the coming decades.

Key factors include the mixture of climate change and sea-level rise, pollution and continuing development pressures, and socio-demographic change of human populations.

However, the report suggests there is, however, much that can be done through policy and other interventions. In particular the development of inter-sectoral policies are key to addressing the challenge  and that increasing the use of marine planning and ‘natural capital’ methodologies could provide a basis for action.

Click here to download Future of the Sea: Health and Wellbeing of Coastal Communities