National Drought Group forecasts drought may remain beyond spring 2023.  Average rainfall levels over winter will still not be sufficient to avoid impending drought or drought conditions next year, the National Drought Group has forecast.

At a meeting on 14 October, chaired by Environment Agency Chief Executive Sir James Bevan, members discussed projections for a dry autumn and winter on the water, agriculture and environment sectors in 2023. Many water companies have suggested impending drought or drought conditions will remain beyond spring in some areas– notably in parts of the South West, South East, East and Yorkshire and East Midlands – if rainfall is below average.

NDG members heard that even with typical rainfall over winter, we could still see environmental impacts in 2023 due to a lag in the environmental response to the dry weather. These include impacts on fish populations, and a higher number of environmental incidents such as fish rescues being needed as a result of lower river flows.

EA Chief Executive and NDG chair, Sir James Bevan said: “Our lives, livelihoods and nature all depend on one thing – water. Climate change and population growth mean we need to take action now to ensure we have enough over the coming decades to manage everyday supplies, and more intense drought events.”

Water companies may put in place drastic water saving measures, banning all non-critical use. This means ponds and swimming pools would be banned from being refilled, and non-residential buildings would not be able to be cleaned.

Millions of people have been under a hosepipe ban for months after a record hot and dry summer, with some parts of England recording their lowest levels of rainfall since records began. It is likely these bans will become more severe, as the Environment Agency noted that the water companies were preparing to implement further phases of their drought plans, which means stricter measures.

The latest hydrological outlook from the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology looks bleak, with river flows expected to be exceptionally low throughout October.

Water Minister Trudy Harrison said: “The record-breaking temperatures, unusually low rainfall and widespread drought the country has experienced this year are a reminder that we need to adapt to ensure our water supplies are resilient and secure in future.”

Fruit and vegetable supply chain could collapse

Following the National Drought Group meeting, the Observer reported that drought threatens England’s fruit and vegetable crop next year. Leaked slides from a national drought group meeting, seen by the Observer, show there are concerns that because reservoirs are still empty due to record dry conditions, the fruit and vegetable supply chain could collapse.

The story was covered in the Guardian, amongst others. Further information can be found in the Defra & Environment Agency news release here.