Edmund C. Penning-Rowsell: ‘A recent paper of mine analyses the available data on flood damage since 1947 and up to 2010. The results show that annual average economic fluvial and coastal flood damage over the last two decades or so – a period seeing several large flood events – had not amounted to more than circa £0.25 billion (Penning-Rowsell, 2014).

Such analysis does not deny that floods can be serious in England and Wales, yet many commentators, including government ministers, the Environment Agency and their officials, have continued in the last five years to emphasise that this annual loss total amounts exceeds £1 billion, fundamentally based on the NAFRA-type assessments of flood risk that have been undertaken since 2002 (Gouldby et al, 2008) (NAFRA = National Flood Risk Assessment). As recently as 2012 the Climate Change Risk Assessment report on flooding and coastal erosion concluded that “Annual damage to properties due to flooding: between £1.7 and £4.5 billion by the 2050s, rising to between £2.1 and £6.2 billion by the 2080s (current figure: £1.2 billion)” (Defra, 2012, 2). The analysis in my paper concluded that “The four- to five-fold exaggeration – as we see it – does not sit well with the government’s commitment to good evidence based decision making” and that “Policy makers …. (and their Ministers) should refrain from referring to levels of … risk that are at best questionable and at worst quite simply erroneous” (Penning-Rowsell, 2014, XX).’

Penning Rowsell Note on the 2013-14 floods May 2014

Edmund has been consulting widely on this work with agencies and Government and if you would like to contact him please email Edmnund@penningrowsell.com